Breakroom Bets: What is Hope?
I write to you just hours before kickoff of the 2024 NFL season. For some, this is the best their team will be the whole season. 0-0, all teams equal. There's something to be said about going to bed with all the dreams of success in front of you. Your team hasn't imploded yet, there haven't been any injuries, your coach hasn't shown himself to be fat airhead. Every man is equal right now, and we all have the same thing: hope. It's sad to say, but I have been victim to this for the past 20+ years. Hope has been my drug, my crutch, my everything. Hope drives me to watch the draft, hope pushes me through those training camp practices. Hope clears the memory, because every year starts the same way. Me, us, hoping this will finally be the year our team wins the Super Bowl.
"Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane."
-Red
#3 Texas @ #10 Michigan
Texas -7.5 (-105)
O/U: 42.5
Prodigy Pick: Texas -7.5 (-105) AND Over 42.5
My thinking for this game is this: Texas has a top 3 offense in all of CFB. Michigan has taken a step back but 90% of CFB fans have yet to realize it. Harbaugh ain't walking through that door anytime soon. Shoutout Rick Pitino.
Michigan's run game has fallen off. Defense is tough, but can they contain Texas for a whole game? No. I think Texas puts up 30, and Michigan scores late. 31-20. Over and Texas all the way.
Hoping this game gets bet down to 7, but we shall see. Prodigy ain't no sucker.
#14 Tennessee @ #24 NC State
Tennessee -9.5 (-110)
O/U: 60.5
Prodigy Pick: Tennessee -9.5
Okay full transparency: I don't know shit about either team really. I just know this Nico kid from Tennessee is a stud. Always bet the better QB in football, period. So that's what I am going to do. Rocky Top! This is how we win folks, take your numbers and shove em. Eye test and word on the street, that's how you win.
Colorado @ Nebraska
Nebraska -7.5 (-105)
O/U: 57.5
Prodigy Pick: Nebraska -7.5 AND Over 57.5
Nebraska is the play. I've seen enough of Colorado. Players that are more worried about Rolex's and statistics over wins and losses is all I need to know. Colorado plays for clout, that was obvious last week. That, and the fact their defense is has more holes than a chain link fence. Nebraska rolls this weekend. Colorado may keep it close in the first half, but if Matt Rhule is worth a dime of his contract he will figure out how to keep scoring. I added the over because if Shadeur is this great talent everyone says he is (I personally don't see it) then we'll have a lot of points.
Andy: So I hear you're a man who knows how to pick winners?
Prodigy: I've been known to locate certain winners from time to time.
NFL Week 1
Alright I have a good amount of picks. Instead of breaking down games I am going to rattle off the picks below.
Prodigy Picks:
Raiders ML (+142)
Raiders/Chargers O 40.5
Jags +3.5 (-120)
Texans -2.5 (-120)
Browns/Cowboys O 40.5 (-118)
Cowboys ML (+118)
Rams +3.5 (-110)
I get it, that's a fuck ton of picks. I am going to tweet out picks every Sunday, so follow on the twitt because I am going to add a lot. Week 1 is a crapshoot. I can't tell if I am way ahead of my skis or zeroing in on an absolute whale.
The Raiders are winning Sunday. The Chargers roster got worse and now everyone thinks they're a playoff team because of Harbaugh. Raiders got better on both sides of the ball. Great value.
Jags and Texans are feel plays. Jags really blew it down the stretch, but Miami ended the season so poorly I honestly believe this is the beginning of the end for them. Mcdaniel is too loose. Tua is soft as baby shit. Texans have been bet down to 2.5 so you have to take it. Anthony Richardson has played 16 games since highschool. 16. Fade the colts while the spreads are tight. All of a sudden this massive project at QB is a lock after playing 4 games last year and a season ending injury? It doesn't add up.
Browns and Cowboys is the battle of the unknown. Give me the Cowboys starting the year right. They have the continuity and the QB who isn't a serial sex offender (allegedly). O/U is low, the early weeks favor offense, the final cold weeks favor defense.
Rams revenge game. Simple as that. Ride the wave!
Teaser Time
(6 pt Teaser)
Bengals -2.5
Steelers +10.5
Texans +3.5
Bills -1.5 (lowest offered)
Broncos +11.5
Panthers/Saints U 48.5
Odds: +473
Teaser season is upon us. I love a good teaser like I love to breath. It's simply the best. Juicing down these lines only to have one team lose or win by 30 and blow the whole thing up? Sign me up!
Bengals will dominate the worst team (and coaching staff) in the league. Steelers will come out to play - 10 points is a ton. Texans losing by more than 3 is looooong shot. Panthers/Saints is the nervy one. Unders are always a crap shoot in week 1, but Derek Carr with a new OC will not score more than 20 points guaranteed. That means Bryce Young will have to put up like 30. Yeah, where's my money.
Bills and Broncos are have the look to them. Bills losing week 1 against the Cardinals? Very possible, we've seen this from them before, but I think they're going to roll all year. No more locker room cancers, just good vibes and football. The Broncos is purely a new coach fade. I think the Seahawks win the game, but 11.5 is a lot of points for a team that can script the opening drive well and run the ball. Oh and Geno Smith is grossly overrated.
100 to win 473? Tasty.
Prodigy TD Parlay
DJ Moore
Bijan Robinson
George Pickens
De'Von Achane
Dalton Kincaid
CeeDee Lamb
Odds: +17208
Kind of threw shit at the wall here but that is juiced to the high heavens. I like it, a lot. TD parlays keep you sane when you're doing 2 weeks in the hole. Easiest 2 weeks I ever did.
Enjoy the weekend everyone. Follow on socials so we can sweat these bets together. I am starting to get really pissed off at these "reporters" who blow the Chiefs every waking second. Time to fight back. I hope these bets hit this weekend. I hope those buffalo wings are crisp to perfection. I hope the beer you drink is chilled and tasty.
I hope we win every bet.
"Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. I will be hoping these winners find you, and find you well.
Your friend,
Prodigy"
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